How Republicans and Democrats are handling down-ballot races
Republicans may spend a lot of money to lose races in the Senate
The GOP could lose Senate races in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Missouri, which would end two brief years of Republican control of Congress. Senate aides say “the reason we don’t hold the Senate, if we don’t, is because of Donald Trump.”
“What has to sting Republican strategists most is that they have the opposite problem in 2016 that they had in 2012.” Trump is polling five points behind down-ballot GOP candidates, whereas Romney polled five points ahead.
The GOP is closing the spending gap, but because their ad dollars are being spent so much later in the game, ad time is more expensive, and they’re getting less bang for their buck.
↩︎ posted Oct. 27, 2016
It is a testament to the politics of our times that Paul Ryan, the most conservative Speaker in the history of the country, won’t be conservative enough for a solid core of his own party in Congress, and is under siege from his party’s presidential nominee and acolytes.
If the Freedom Caucus makes good on its threat to oust Speaker Ryan, they’ll put forward their own hyper-conservative candidate—to which Democrats will respond by allying with mainstream Republicans to nominate a centrist.
↩︎ The Atlantic, posted Oct. 27, 2016
Even if Democrats win the Senate in 2016, their majority won’t last
Don’t get too attached to the idea of Democrats retaking the Senate, because odds are it won’t last. Five of the Democratic seats that will be on the ballot in 2018 are in states that voted for Romney.
↩︎ posted Oct. 27, 2016
Democrats look to Jason Kander’s Missouri campaign as a model for making inroads in Southern states. Kander’s gun savvy—he’s an Army vet—made waves when he assembled an AR-15 blindfolded for a campaign spot in favor of background checks.
↩︎ posted Oct. 27, 2016
While Republicans acknowledge they’re exiting October in worse shape than they ever imagined, they believe it’s possible Trump has hit rock bottom and can’t pull the House GOP any further down with him.
With all three debates in the rearview mirror, House Republicans are hoping Trump can’t do any more to sabotage their hopes of retaining a majority.
↩︎ Politico, posted Oct. 27, 2016
The only thing rigged about the election is gerrymandered control of the House. Republicans in state governments redrew 193 districts to their liking in 2010, whereas Democrats redrew just 44. That’s led to bizarre results. “Pennsylvania favored the Democrats by nearly 100,000 votes, but the sophisticated new lines returned a delegation that somehow broke 13 to 5 for the GOP.”
↩︎ posted Oct. 27, 2016