November 3, 2008, 9:31 p.m.

John,

It’s down to simple probability now.

John McCain’s last chance at winning this thing relies on a bunch of “and” statements. McCain needs to win Indiana AND Missouri AND Ohio AND Virginia AND Pennsylvania, etc. Obama’s path consists of “or” statements. He needs to win Pennsylvania OR Ohio plus Florida OR Ohio plus Virginia plus Colorado, etc. Over at 538, Nate Silver puts McCain’s chances of winning the election at just under two percent. If you believe the polls are mostly accurate, and you have faith in Silver’s electoral simulations, then the odds of McCain becoming our next president are roughly the same as a poker player being dealt three of a kind, or approximately the same as a pregnant woman in the Netherlands being told by her OB/GYN that she’s carrying twins.

Put that way, it doesn’t sound quite as comforting for an Obama supporter. I’ve been dealt three of a kind hundreds of times in my life, and I’ve probably seen dozens of pairs of blonde twins in wooden shoes gracing the pages of imported Dutch porn. Of course, McCain only gets one hand of stud to pull his three aces.

Obama can still lose this election, but he’s going to have to be very unlucky.

This morning we stand over a broken condom in a wastebasket, anxiously tearing the cellophane off a hastily purchased pregnancy test.

America just has to pee on the stick.

UPDATE: I’m watching Obama vote live on TV right now. He’s spending a really long time hunched over his paper ballot. Whatever the results of the election, know that Barack Obama takes Cook County judicial retention very seriously.

—Kevin

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About the Authors

John Warner and Kevin Guilfoile are the authors and illustrators of the no. 1 bestselling My First Presidentiary: A Scrapbook by George W. Bush. Warner is the editor emeritus of McSweeney’s, the author of So You Want to Be President?, and the proprietor of Tow Books. Guilfoile's first novel was the thriller Cast of Shadows. His second novel, The Thousand, will be published next year by Alfred A. Knopf. You can read past installments of the Guilfoile-Warner Papers here.

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